NFL DFS Week 1 Picks: Strategy for DraftKings & FanDuel

In this article, weekly I’ll be breaking down my core player pool across each position, highlighting projected ownership trends, key leverage spots, and the plays I’m targeting for tournaments of all sizes. You can also get access to my premium DFS builds for every main slate here. Now, let’s dive in…

Quarterback 

Projected Highest Own%: Jayden Daniels, Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones

My Targets: Trevor Lawrence, Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, Daniel Jones, Russell Wilson

Christmas has arrived and we finally have NFL DFS back in our lives! Once again this season I will be providing my player pool for DFS lineup building in article format and I will be posting my DFS builds for every slate to premium members. 

I probably will skip a lot of the advanced analysis for Week 1 – we might think we know about these match-ups but a lot can change from year to year in the NFL so I will simply analyze where I think the ownership is going and spots I think we can exploit. 

The chalky tier of QB is pretty clear to me – in cash games most users will decide between Jayden Daniels and Trevor Lawrence while you also have the Bengals vs Browns game with one of the higher totals on the slate as well. 

I love this cheap tier of QBs this week – Lawrence, Flacco and even Daniel Jones. 

I’m expecting a massive step forward for Trevor Lawrence this season under new HC Liam Coen and they get a soft spot at home to get rolling against the Panthers. Coen completely transformed Baker Mayfield last season and it’s not a stretch to think he can do so with another former number one overall pick. He has weapons at his disposal and I think Coen will use his legs more as well. 

I don’t love Flacco, but the last time we saw him start under Kevin Stefanski he was one of the top fantasy QB’s in football. Cincinnati is once again going to have one of the worst defenses in the league and it’s telling that this total is the highest on the main slate in my opinion. 

As for Jones, Miami is likely to be a huge pass-funnel defense this season – it just comes down to whether or not he can exploit it. Miami has a strong front seven but were already thin on the back-end before they lost multiple starting DBs to injury in training camp. Jonathan Taylor is going to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate so attacking with the Colts passing game could be a smart move in mid-sized GPPs. 

If you want my completely crazy QB stack for this week it would be Russell Wilson against the Commanders. His deep ball will play so well with Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton and you can pick on the Commanders secondary a little bit. New York could be better than anticipated and I wouldn’t be shocked if this game is higher scoring than expected. 

Running Back

Projected Highest Own%: Chase Brown, James Conner, De’Von Achane, Jonathan Taylor, Alvin Kamara

My Targets: Chase Brown, James Conner, De’Von Achane, Josh Jacobs, Bucky Irving, Jonathan Taylor, Jaylen Warren, Kenneth Walker

With the Christian McCaffrey news breaking late in the week – RB is extremely concentrated heading into the main slate. He was set to be the highest-owned RB option by far, but with the lingering uncertainty surrounding his calf I think his ownership will top out at 9-10%. I personally will avoid him in what I think is a tough match-up anyways. 

The chalky RB tier will consist of Chase Brown, James Conner, De’Von Achane and Jonathan Taylor all in the mid-tier. I think all of them are strong options at their price and I’m fine with them in all formats just depending on lineup construction. If I had to pick my favorite two, it would be Conner and Achane right now. 

Looking at other guys in that mid-tier pricing is where I think you can be different if you have an otherwise chalky build. As the week has gone on I’ve really come onto Josh Jacobs in a good spot at home against the Lions. We saw him with a monster workload down the stretch of last season and I expect that to continue into this season with Marshawn Lloyd out. Detroit is replacing multiple members on their DL along with a new defensive coordinator and I expect the Packers to play this game from ahead – the gamescript we need when playing Jacobs in DFS. 

I also like looking at Bucky Irving on any non-Baker teams just with the ownership numbers we are seeing on Egbuka and Evans. 

Jaylen Warrena and Kenneth Walker are both sub-$6K and while the match-ups on paper are middling I like getting ahead of our competition in Week 1. There is a chance both have bigger workloads to begin the season and if we absolutely knew that right now they may project slightly better. 

 

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Wide Receiver

Projected Highest Own%: Emeka Egbuka, Tetairoa McMillan, Drake London, Brian Thomas Jr, Mike Evans. Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, Jerry Jeudy

My Targets: Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr, Drake London, Mike Evans, Jerry Jeudy, Emeka Egbuka, Chris Olave, Bengals WRs, Malik Nabers, Deebo Samuel, Jaylen Waddle, Courtland Sutton

The mid-tier at WR is also loaded with underpriced players expected to play huge roles for their team to begin the season. Pricing is soft enough that you can play whoever you want, but it’s also soft enough that because you can do that it won’t cause anyone to get too out of control in ownership in my opinion. Rookie Emeka Egbuka is likely to be the highest-owned option, however, stepping into the Chris Godwin role at sub-$5K. 

I like all of these mid-tier options this week and it will basically all come down to mini correlations or how I’m constructing my rosters. 

Some guys I want to be over the field on are Nico Collins, Chris Olave and Deebo Samuel. 

Collins was the darling of season long drafts for me and I’m expecting a massive role for him in a revamped Texans offense. Christian Kirk was ruled out for this game as well, bolstering the case for Collins as an under owned play. 

Everyone that reads my content knows I love Chris Olave, but I especially love him at sub-5% ownership. I don’t see a world where anyone plays him this week and it makes too much sense to pair him in lineups with James Conner. Olave saw 14 targets in his last full game with Rattler at QB and this Arizona defense is going to force you to attack them underneath which could work in Olave’s favor as opposed to someone like Rashid Shaheed. 

I also love betting on a bigger role than anticipated for Deebo Samuel early in the season. He fits so perfectly in Kingsbury’s offense and it helps that Terry McLaurin missed basically all of camp due to his contract dispute. New York is going to have one of the best pass rushes in football this season – so we could see the Deebo screen game get cooking early on Sunday. There is also a chance for red zone carries as well. 

Tight End

Projected Highest Own%: David Njoku, George Kittle, Trey McBride, Brenton Strange

My Targets: David Njoku, George Kittle, Brenton Strange, JT Sanders, Harold Fannin

In typical Week 1 fashion we have chalk heavily concentrating on a few TE plays, however this year it’s on the guys in the mid-tier as opposed to the punt options. I typically avoid the true mid-range at TE on DraftKings, but it’s hard to overlook the ceiling of David Njoku, George Kittle and Trey McBride. Njoku is popping as the highest-owned option with Joe Flacco back at the helm of the offense. Joker topped 90+ yards in four of Flacco’s 6 starts with the Browns two seasons ago and he has an extremely soft match-up on paper against the Cincinnati Bengals. Kittle is in a great spot in my opinion especially with the McCaffrey uncertainty. Mike MacDonald calls a zone-heavy scheme and funnels usage to the middle of the field – Kittle played one game against his defense a year ago and found paydirt twice. 

I like the lower-owned cheap plays at TE this week particularly JT Sanders and Harold Fannin. Sanders provides low-owned access to one of my favorite games on the slate and he could see a bigger role with Jalen Coker down for this game. Fannin is the Browns new toy on offense and I expect them to play a ton of double-TE this year. He is fantastic after the catch, and should see a larger role than most anticipate starting right away in Week 1. I don’t mind sprinkling on his touchdown props at high odds as well…

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler)