NFL DFS Week 5 Picks: Strategy for DraftKings & FanDuel

In this article, weekly I’ll be breaking down my core player pool across each position, highlighting projected ownership trends, key leverage spots, and the plays I’m targeting for tournaments of all sizes. You can also get access to my premium DFS builds for every main slate here. Now, let’s dive in…

I’m a bit short on time this weekend so the article is going to be a bit abbreviated. Let’s dive in!

Quarterback

Top Projected Own%: Justin Fields, Justin Herbert, Daniel Jones

My Player Pool: Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, Kyler Murray, Jaxson Dart, Sam Darnold, Jared Goff 

I think we see a huge own% number on Justin Fields, and Justin Herbert coming in second after him.

We’ve attacked this Dallas defense all season, and I actually think the Jets win this game outright today. That being said, it’s tough to stomach him as massive chalk and I will have exposure to Fields stacks but likely be underweight the field. The same can be said about Justin Herbert, playing with a banged up OL I might come in underweight here and pick lower-owned stacks to fill around the chalk I feel good about at RB and TE.

Hurts won’t be a main play for me but I do want to mention him since I think he is the only QB on this slate that could truly break it. We don’t have Lamar or Allen and Daniels is coming back from injury. No QB scares me to fade today but if Hurts runs in two and throws two then it will be hard to compete with that in GPPs.

I like the cheaper QBs a lot today — mainly because they’re going to come in much lower owned than Fields and it still allows for what I view as optimal roster construction today. Kyler Murray, Jaxson Dart and Sam Darnold all have ceiling potential if the efficiency is there and they have clear stacking partners I want. I will likely focus my main stacks from that trio — plus Jared Goff who may end up higher owned than expected due to the nature of this slate. I will look to stack Murray with Harrison and McBride — Dart with Slayton and Darnold with JSN/Tory Horton.

Running Back

Top Projected Own%: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Breece Hall, Rico Dowdle, Rachaad White

My Player Pool: JT, Achane, Breece Hall, Woody Marks, David Montgomery, Rico Dowdle

This is a very clear running back week — I think most rosters will use the pool above from the projected own% section and you can get different by pivoting to other options in that range. That being said, I love the chalky pieces this week and with all of the salary available it’s kind of a play whoever you want week. Typically when this happens, I want to lean into the certainty as opposed to the potential value plays, and let others make mistakes. With that being said, I will probably fade the punt value options on the majority of my GPP builds and focus more heavily on the mid to upper tier at RB.

Breece Hall isn’t going to be a secret here, but there’s a chance that he takes over this game and busts out the Fields/Wilson stuff. New York wants to run the ball and they’ve made that clear. The one way this game fails is by the Jets churning out long extended drives on the ground and Hall is my favorite way to play the game.

JT + Achane are both smash plays at the top and can be used in all formats. Even though they’re projected for ownership, you can get different around them by not using a punt RB or switching up with a lower owned stack.

The non-Breece mid-tier is going to be squeezed hard in terms of ownership and two plays I love there are Woody Marks and David Montgomery. Marks looks to be taking over the Texans backfield after last week while the Ravens have allowed the most DK PPG and 4th most yards to opposing RBs. They’re very banged up both on the DL and at the second level and Marks role is safe regardless of game script in my opinion. Everyone has been talking about the David Montgomery narrative this week, playing in front his sister for the first time since she was paralyzed in an accident. It’s hard to bake that stuff into projections but I do think if any team cares about things like that it’s Dan Campbell and the Lions. Monty paired with Ja’Marr Chase looks like a strong secondary GPP stack on Sunday.

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Wide Receiver

Top Projected Own%: Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson, Jakobi Meyers, Chris Olave, George Pickens

My Player Pool: JSN, Wilson, Meyers, Tetairoa McMillan, Quintin Johnston, Marv Harrison JR, AJ Brown, Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Marr Chase, Darius Slayton

Like RB, I think the chalk at WR is very good this week and it’s why I’m trying to get weird with my QBs, to fit in those chalky RBs/WRs that I think are strong even at ownership.

As far as lower-owned options I like — McMillan, Chase and Slayton.

McMillan has been elite this season, and struggled mainly due to Bryce Young and the team not putting him in spots to succeed. It’s now or never against the Miami Dolphins defense and he pairs well with Achane and Waddle.

Crazy to see Chase on a low-owned list but I think people are done with Jake Browning and going to hop off at the wrong time. DET is extremely banged up in the secondary and despite his lackluster box scores they’ve been feeding Chase the rock. This has all the makings of a legendary get right spot at a strong own% number.

And finally, we’ve seen Slayton have big games with Nabers down last season and nobody is going to touch him today because of the value RBs in similar price ranges. New Orleans is playing very fast this season under Kellen Moore, and I like flipping the build and playing a cheap WR instead of the cheaper RBs in tourneys like I mentioned above — Slayton being my favorite.

Tight End

Top Projected Own%: Tyler Warren, Trey McBride

My Player Pool: Tyler Warren, Trey McBride, Sam Laporta, Zach Ertz

Tyler Warren has completely ascended as the top fantasy TE behind Trey McBride weekly, and some may have Warren even ahead of McBride. This week sets up similar to Week 3 where I’m aligned with the chalk TE plays. We have plenty of salary to afford either Warren or McBride and I will include them mostly on all of my rosters, whether as correlation pieces or as one-offs. Any TE after those two will be lower-owned this week, and I would prefer to drop down to Sam Laporta or Zach Ertz if you want to get different.

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)