Welcome into our Thanksgiving Day NFL DFS Strategy and Picks article for DraftKings and FanDuel. In this article, I will highlight my favorite plays, values and stacks for the Thanksgiving NFL DFS slate. If you’re interested in signing up for my access to my Premium DFS lineups and betting cards you can do so by clicking here. By signing up, you will also be granted access to our premium DFS and betting forums. Note that your membership includes ALL sports! Now, let’s get to the plays…
Quarterback
My Conviction Plays: Cooper Rush, Drew Lock, Jordan Love
Anyone that’s followed my content knows my affinity for the Thanksgiving Day NFL slate, and I couldn’t be more excited for the three games on this year’s edition. Caleb Williams is trending to be the highest-owned QB on the slate – and that’s understandable given his price/ceiling combo now that’s been running more. Detroit profiles as a pass-funnel defense, and Chicago will need to lean on the pass even more as 10 point underdogs. Detroit also has arguably the best run-defense in football, so I don’t see them having much success in that aspect. I have some concerns about the Bears here – it’s a short week, on the road after they just ran their second-highest play volume of the season in an OT game against the Vikings. That could spell trouble against a physical Lions team, and this game features as wide of a gap in quality of coaching staff as you’ll find. Williams projects for strong pass volume regardless, but I’ll likely come in underweight and hope that the team fails in this tricky spot.
Dallas/New York has the lowest total on the board, but is weirdly enough the game I’m interested in most. Both of these teams are bad, particularly on defense and I’m hoping for a bit of a bad team shootout and for the game to go over its total. We need to get creative on these smaller slates without getting too cute. If our opponents are playing this as the worst game on the slate – with an emphasis on the running backs – I’m completely fine stacking the passing games and betting on elite WRs like CeeDee Lamb and Malik Nabers to carry their QBs to good fantasy performances. Cooper Rush has been completely acceptable scoring 20 and 18 DK points over his last two starts. On this slate, that might be an optimal score especially against a slipping Giants defense. It’s also worth noting that Dallas has actually skewed more pass-heavy in neutral scripts with Rush at QB as opposed to Dak Prescott earlier in the season. On the other side, it’s expected that Drew Lock will start for the injured Tommy Devito in this game and I fully believe him to be an upgrade for the offense. Both of these guys are priced well below the other top QBs and if I had to guess my main lineup will be a stack of this game.
Vegas isn’t buying into the Tua cold weather narrative, given that Miami still owns a 22.5 point team total. He’s been playing lights out since returning from injury, but this Packers defense has been nothing to scoff at. Typically, Miami profiles as run-funnel defense but Jordan Love possesses as high of a ceiling as anyone on this slate and becomes easier to stack with Romeo Doubs out. I prefer Love to Tua if choosing one from this game – but I think both are viable tournament options on Thursday.
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Running Back
My Conviction Plays: De’Von Achane, Rico Dowdle, Tyrone Tracy, DET RBs
As of now, ownership at RB appears in this order: Dowdle, Gibbs, Jacoobs, Achane, Montgomery, Tracy
I’ll start with the DET guys – as I think both are viable on their own or even together. Chicago ranks bottom-three in run DVOA and rushing yards allowed per attempt this season. We have seen Detroit completely impose their will on the ground multiple times this season, and I won’t be shocked if this is another one of those games. I think David Montgomery is good to go for this one, but that news will be worth monitoring overnight. I will likely want one DET RB on every team I build – and I think both are viable stacked together with a Bears WR on the other side.
Achane is my favorite overall play – his role continues to be amazing in the passing game and you have upside for GL carries as well. Miami has not been efficient running the ball whatsoever this season, but we could potentially see them try to get that going early in the game if the temperatures are cold.
Matt Lafleur made comments that we could see a little bit of a docked workload for Jacobs on Thursday night after he handled 26 carries this past Sunday. That remains to be seen, but the potential for a few less carries is there and I think the three touchdowns in his game log are doing their part to increase his own% tag.
Both RBs in the NYG/DAL game are viable – with Dowdle trending as the highest owned option on the slate coming off a 22 touch game vs the Commanders. Our opponents may want to avoid Tyrone Tracy after his fumbles against the Bucs, but I still fully expect him to be the lead back against a Cowboys run defense that has really struggled this season. As I noted, the entire offense gets a boost with Lock over Devito at QB and Tracy is a beneficiary of that as well.
Wide Receiver
My Conviction Plays: CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Jameson Williams, Rome Odunze
We can expect pretty heavy ownership on the early game here – with Keenan Allen and Amon-Ra St. Brown both sitting in the top-four of overall projected ownership at this position. Due to Williams ownership tag at QB, this will naturally increase the ownership of his receivers and I would be mindful of how I build teams around those stacks as to not play too heavily into popular builds. My favorite Bears WR is once again Rome Odunze. He’s seen 10 targets in each of Thomas Brown’s first two games calling plays – and matches up well vs this Lions secondary. They have been known to give up chunk plays – and Odunze leads the team in Air Yards and Air Yards per reception. He’s viable in a stack or as a one-off for me at this price.
Everyone that follows me knows that St. Brown is my favorite receiver, but I’m probably going to come in lower on him than the field on this slate. Chicago is one of the best teams in the NFL at defending slot receivers and they did exceptionally well against him last season. They’re much more vulnerable to outside WRs which is why I’m going to take a heavy stand on Jameson Williams in this spot. He’s absolutely crushed at home this season averaging 100 YPG in Ford Field and scoring three of his four touchdowns. He’s my favorite GPP play on this slate.
I really don’t need to dive into CeeDee Lamb or Malik Nabers much. They’re two elite, alpha WRs and I will likely be overweight given my interest in their QBs. We do have a small narrative that the Giants could look to get Nabers the ball after his comments post game last Sunday – overall I just expect Lock to do a better job airing the ball out than Devito can.
In the night game, we will see ownership concentrate on the Packers options due to the absence of Romeo Doubs. All of Jayden Reed, Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks are in play but if I had to rank them it would be Reed, Wicks, Watson in that order. I think we could see GB dial up a few rush attempts for Reed on the short week which increases both his floor and ceiling. Wicks owns nearly 25% of the team target-share in games that Doubs has missed since the start of last season, and has been in position for some monster games this year only to be held back by drops. If he can hold onto the football on Thursday, he could pay off his basement salary in a big way.
I’m not going out of my way to play any MIA WRs over Achane on this slate, but I think both Hill and Waddle are viable in both small and large field GPPs. Obviously you can stack them with Tua, but I think one or both are viable on the opposite side of a Love stack as well.
Tight End
My Conviction Plays: Sam Laporta, Jonnu Smith
If Tight End is bad on a main slate, you can only imagine the pain we will endure on a three game slate. Jonnu Smith looks to be the clear chalk as of now, given the role increase we’ve seen from him in recent weeks. I will likely use this spot to occupy part of my QB stacks or game stacks – or simply plug in whoever fits after I build the rest of my lineup. If I had to highlight one option as my favorite, I think I’m willing to go back to the well on Sam Laporta even after a down week in Week 12. As noted above, Chicago has done very well defending Amon-Ra St. Brown in the past and we could see some of that middle of the field usage funnel more towards Laporta. He’s faced a gauntlet schedule in terms of Tight End defenses and overall I’m still expecting him to have some big fantasy weeks down the stretch of the season.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
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