Week 10 NFL DFS: Strategy & Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

Welcome into our Week 10 NFL DFS Strategy and Picks article for DraftKings and FanDuel. In this article, I will highlight my favorite plays, values and stacks for the Week 10 NFL DFS slate. If you’re interested in signing up for my access to my Premium DFS lineups and betting cards you can do so by clicking here. By signing up, you will also be granted access to our premium DFS and betting forums. Note that your membership includes ALL sports! Now, let’s get to the plays…

Quarterback

Highest Projected Owned: Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, Sam Darnold, Mac Jones

My Conviction Plays: Justin Herbert, Sam Darnold, Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins, Josh Allen

We have a smaller 10 game main slate on tap this weekend,, with bye weeks still in effect and a Germany game on Sunday morning. We’ve dealt with massive slates the last few weeks, meaning ownership will be more concentrated in Week 10 with less options and only three games containing a total of 46 points or more. As you can see above, the QBs projecting for any ownership at all come from those few high totaled games and that will push up the stack ownership as well. 

Brock Purdy matches up with the Buccaneers, who have been horrific defensively as of late. After starting the season reasonably in terms of defensive stats, they’re now allowing the third-most DK PPG to opposing QB’s. Purdy and the 49ers offense is as healthy as it can possibly be coming off the bye week, and that would be why they have a 29 point implied team total.

I’ve written up Herbert each of the last two weeks, and now it appears people will be jumping on the train against the Tennessee Titans. Herbert has continually been one of my favorite QBs in the league, and has completely buried the Chargers want to be a run-first team with how well he’s played this season. Los Angeles is a top-five offense in pass rate right now – and the match-up is good on paper this week with the Titans down their top corner. I’ve already been heavy on Herbert during this stretch, and I won’t stop this week.

Both sides of the Vikings/Jaguars game look great for GPPs, with the Jags being one of the worst pass defenses in football and Mac Jones providing value stepping in for the injured Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville grades out terribly against the pass – and given how man-heavy they skew on defense I think they could be in for a long day against the likes of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor all of which are capable of getting separation. I’m actually one of the few believers left that think Jones is a starting NFL QB, but this is a tough spot for a spot start with how aggressive Brian Flores’ scheme is. I love the price point, but might look at the pass catchers as one-offs or bring-backs more so than a full-stack in this spot. 

Some other spots that stick out to me are Kirk Cousins and Josh Allen. I wrote about Cousins last week as a pivot off the Cowboys and I think you can right back to him this week vs the Saints. New Orleans is still weak in the secondary – with Marshon Lattimore out of town and Kool-Aid McKinstry seeing a DNP on Friday. We’ve seen the ceiling Cousins possesses – and the Falcons have a solid 25 point team total. 

As for Allen, if you’ve read my content this season at all you know why we are going here. Indianapolis has been one of my favorite targets in DFS, and now we get the opportunity to get in on Allen with some clear stacking partners due to injuries. With less games available, there’s less value on the board which is going to hold Allen stacks in check. Overall, I think buying into an enormous ceiling makes sense on these smaller slates and I’m willing to sacrifice in areas and make uncomfortable builds to jam in Allen. He’s my favorite GPP play on the Week 10 slate and will likely anchor my main GPP team. 

Running Back

Highest Projected Owned: Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall

My Conviction Plays: Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Bijan Robinson, James Cook, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris. Jonathan Taylor

Alvin Kamara was massively owned last week, and that will be the case once again with Chris Olave now out in addition to all the other Saints offensive injuries. I think it’s tough to avoid him in this role, and he’s the top-overall play on the board for me. I still like pivoting to Taysom Hill in GPPs – but for the first time ever I think they’re viable together to just eat all the TD equity assuming Jamaal Williams misses again this week. 

Both Jones and Robinson are in strong match-ups and can be used in all formats. I don’t need to dive into them a ton but I do prefer Kamara even at elevated ownership. 

For tournaments the pool is very clear to me – and I love all of the plays I have listed under the conviction category. I will be playing a Josh Allen team as one of my main GPP builds – and hedging that with James Cook on my secondary GPP lineup. It’s a great spot vs the Colts and they could skew a bit more run-heavy this week even though they’ve been trending towards the pass over the last month. 

Both Austin Ekeler and Najee Harris are viable in the same game. Brian Robinson is out once again, and I feel like Ekeler left some meat on the bone last week. If we get a situation where Washington is trailing at all, as well, that would be great for Ekeler and he remains affordably priced. Harris is someone I’ve played a lot recently, and would consider him as a one-off on Sunday. 

What to do with McCaffrey is the biggest question on the slate. I think you can certainly pair him up with Purdy – but given Purdy is trending as the chalkiest stack we could look to pivot off that and go all-in on CMC at modest ownership. His health is a huge unknown, but if he’s a full-go we likely won’t see this ownership tag again this season and I’m willing to take a stand and be overweight. Playing a cheap stack like Herber or Jones would allow you to get up to McCaffrey. 

UPDATE: Adding Jonathan Taylor to my RB conviction section. 

Wide Receiver

Highest Projected Owned: DeAndre Hopkins, Josh Downs, Khalil Shakir, Ladd McConkey, Drake London, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson

My Conviction Plays: DeAndre Hopkins, Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, Khalil Shakir, Justin Jefferson, Drake London, Adams/Wilson, Sterling Shepard, Parker Washington, Deebo Samuel

As I noted in the QB section, there isn’t a ton of strong value on this slate like we’ve seen on the past two slates. All of the good value plays come at WR this week, and it’s all because they’re underpriced for new roles or roles in a new offense. DeAndre Hopkins smashed last Monday night, but because pricing was already out they left him in the $5K range. Both Downs and Adonai Mitchell get bumps with Michael Pittman out and Joe Flacco still operating a more pass-heavy offense than Anthony Richardson. Khalil Shakir was already a strong play, but gets a boost with no Keon Coleman for the Bills. 

McConkey was featured heavily in my article last week, and will be a popular play on Sunday given the expected ownership of Herbert. He’s viable in all formats, but I also like Quentin Johnston as a pivot. I’ve been critical of Johnston throughout his NFL career but now is the time to buy-in with how much they’ve been throwing. He’s their best deep threat, and is seeing a 20% target share in games played this season. His match-up improves as well, given Snead is out for Tennessee. 

For stacking purposes, I love using Parker Washington as Vikings run-back or in a Mac Jones stack. Washington can work the middle of the field against the heavy Flores’ blitz and is cheap despite having a nice ceiling given his deep ball abilities. 

Both Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams are viable as one-offs or in stacks. I still prefer Adams if picking one but it’s clear that the addition and attention on Adams has been great for Wilson. 

Sterling Shepard is another strong value option – he clearly has a rapport with Baker Mayfield and should be operating in a trailing game-script. 

UPDATE: Added Deebo Samuel to my WR conviction section

Tight End

Highest Projected Owned: Cade Otton, Will Dissly, Travis Kelce, Hunter Henry

My Conviction Plays: Cade Otton, Evan Engram, Taysom Hill, Dalton Kincaid

TE ownership is figured to be dominated by “Cade Gronkowski” in Week 10, and rightfully so. Otton has completely erupted since Mike Evans and Chris Godwin went down – topping 20+ DK points in each of the last three games while seeing well over 20% of Baker Mayfield’s targets. He’s viable in all formats, despite sitting in a price-range I typically avoid at this position. 

I correctly predicted Taysom Hill scoring a touchdown last week, and will be going back to the well in GPPs vs the Falcons. Hill will continue to operate as the Saints back-up running back assuming Jamaal Williams misses again (DNP on Friday) while seeing an increased role as a receiver with Chris Olave out in addition to Rashid Shaheed. 

Evan Engram is my preferred stacking partner with Mac Jones, but can be used as a bring-back in a Darnold team or mini-stacked with a Vikings player on the opposite side. Kincaid is one of my favorite tourney plays on the slate given my interest in Josh Allen, as well. As I noted above, the targets should be a bit consolidated with no Keon Coleman and Kincaid does have a high ceiling despite lackluster results for the bulk of the season.

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)