Week 12 NFL DFS: Strategy & Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

Welcome into our Week 12 NFL DFS Strategy and Picks article for DraftKings and FanDuel. In this article, I will highlight my favorite plays, values and stacks for the Week 12 NFL DFS slate. If you’re interested in signing up for my access to my Premium DFS lineups and betting cards you can do so by clicking here. By signing up, you will also be granted access to our premium DFS and betting forums. Note that your membership includes ALL sports! Now, let’s get to the plays…

Quarterback 

Top Projected Owned: Geno Smith, Anthony Richardson, Jayden Daniels, Tua Tagovailoa

My Conviction Plays: Anthony Richardson, Tua Tagovailoa, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels, Brandon Allen

This is a smaller main slate, featuring only 10 games and just a few close spreads. Ownership is concentrating in some pretty clear offensive spots and I actually like some of the angles we have for tournaments. 

I played Anthony Richardson on one of my three GPP teams last week, and he was sub-3% owned. This week, he is projecting for heavy ownership given the monster total on their game and the fact that he ran in two touchdowns a week ago. This game certainly has the most realistic chance of getting out of control scoring wise, and I think Richardson stacks are viable in both large and small-field contests. Due to his high projected ownership, I would be smart about players you’re using around him. Tua is my personal favorite tournament stack this week in a home match-up against the Patriots. New England ranks bottom-three as a team in Pass DVOA and will likely be without top corner Christian Gonzalez. Miami needs to win for any chance at the play-offs and I anticipate Mike McDaniel getting deep into his bag down the stretch of the season while they attempt to secure the seventh wildcard spot. Miami has a very respectable 27 point team total and this stack would work as leverage against De’Von Achane if you choose not to include him. 

The best real-life game on the slate is Arizona vs Seattle with both teams fighting for the NFC West lead. I think there are very interesting ways to play this, including double-stacking Kyler Murray and hoping that Seattle dictates the pace of the game with some quick scores to start out. We’ve seen a ceiling from Murray this season, though not often, but I’m willing to go here given the stakes of the game and the fact the total has held strong at 47.5. 

We have a few min-price options in Brandon Allen and Tommy Devito. Any time we get a $4K QB on DraftKings we need to consider but this doesn’t feel like a slate that it’s needed. If going full stars and scrubs I would prefer Allen given that Deebo Samuel or George Kittle can easily take over a game at any point which helps him out. Devito has Malik Nabers, but overall the team is less trustworthy and we’ve seen him struggle in multiple starts last season. Allen is an unknown and there’s a better chance he outperforms projections in my opinion. 

Running Back 

Top Projected Owned: De’Von Achane, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, Brian Robinson

My Conviction Plays: De’Von Achane, Kareem Hunt, Brian Robinson, Tony Pollard, Bucky Irving, Kenneth Walker, DET RBs, Roschon Johnson (if Swift gets ruled out)

RB is very clear this week in my opinion with the DK pricing forcing everyone’s hand. Both Kareem Hunt and Brian Robinson come in sub-$6K while De’Von Achane continues to project massively given his involvement in the passing game. I expect cash game lineups to feature all three and most small-field or single-entry tournament teams to feature two of them. It’s really tough for me to argue against Robinson/Hunt at their price-tags so I’m going to look to get weird at WR and potentially avoid Achane more than I have any other slate this season. 

Kenneth Walker is an interesting run-back for a Kyler Murray stack and we’ve seen his homerun ability throughout his career. 

As for tourney plays, I’m finding myself most interested in Tony Pollard and Bucky Irving. Pollard has been great in games that Tyjae Spears has missed all season and I’m encouraged by his 20% target-share in those games as well. He should see heavy usage in the passing game as a sizable underdog and can be used in a mini-stack with Nico Collins. 

Wide Receiver 

Top Projected Owned: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Courtland Sutton, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, Calvin Ridley, Jakobi Meyers

My Conviction Plays: Tyreek Hill, Nico Collins, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rome Odunze, Courtland Sutton, Mike Evans, Kayshon Boutte, Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, Marv Harrison Jr

It’s very clear that the chalk is going to settle in the mid-tier of WR this week – with the exception of Amon-Ra St. Brown and to a lesser extent Nico Collins. I love the mid-tier at RB this week – and I’m completely fine building teams differently than most and focusing on more expensive WRs. 

Tyreek Hill is my favorite play on the board, which I’m sure you guessed due to my interest above in his QB. He has crushed the Patriots at various points in his career, and with potentially no Gonzalez I don’t see how they have a chance to slow him down. He quieted concerns about his injury last week, and he has historically been much better at home in Miami vs on the road so now is when I want to buy into him. You can play him with Achane on a non-Tua team if it’s small-field but I think my preferred method is to stack him with Tua and avoid Achane for GPPs. 

I also love Nico Collins, and I’m hoping he comes in modest in terms of own%. He has absolutely crushed when active this season, and had that 70 yard TD on Monday counted he would be trending as one of the highest owned plays on the slate. Even if his snaps are still a bit limited, he has big play ability and I will be playing him aggressively on DraftKings. 

Marv Harrison Jr looks to be un-owned this week, and I love pairing him with Murray. I’m expecting a big bump in his usage coming out of their bye week, and I also expect them to target him early and make it a point to do so. Seattle plays very heavy press-coverage per this Jacob Gibbs tweet and Harrison has graded out best vs that coverage type this season. It’s natural for rookies WRs to take a big leap post-bye week and I think he has that chance here especially in a game of this magnitude. 

I also love the idea of Mike Evans this week – sticking with my theme of eating chalk at RB and getting different at WR. Evans is fully healthy it appears, and should dominate the target-share from Baker Mayfield for the remainder of the season. Evans has completely owned the Giants in his career and this is a huge narrative spot with both Evans’ return and the fact that his 1,000 yard streak is on the line. I love him as a one-off or in a single-stack with Baker Mayfield. 

For the chalkier options, Smith-Njigba is my favorite both as a one-off or in a run-back with my Kyler Murray team. Arizona has funneled usage more towards the middle of the field vs the outside this season and that is mostly where JSN operates. He’s also come on strong in recent weeks and is primed to take over as the Hawks lead target earned for the rest of the season. 

Odunze is someone I’m buying into as a one-off as well. He’s seen nearly 30% of Caleb Williams first-read targets since their bye week and new OC Thomas Brown clearly loves him after he saw a season-high target-share in his first game calling plays. 

I like the idea of going back to Kayshon Boutte as my Dolphins stack run-back. He won’t be owned after being chalk last week – but still leads the team in Air Yards% and eventually he and Maye are going to connect on one of these deep balls. I’m fine playing a punt when he has big play ability. 

Tight End 

Top Projected Owned: Hunter Henry, Brock Bowers, Travis Kelce, Luke Schoonmaker

My Conviction Plays: Hunter Henry, Brock Bowers, Jonnu Smith, Luke Schoonmaker, Trey McBride

Tight End was a disaster last week, this week the mid to high-end options are in good spots but we have a lack of value options. 

Hunter Henry ended up being a popular play last Sunday, and I think that could be the case again this week given his strong target-share and price. I prefer Jonnu Smith in GPPs, but grade Henry as viable in all formats as a one-off or part of a game stack. 

Luke Schoonmaker is the top value with Jake Ferguson out for the Cowboys. Schoonmaker saw 10 targets on Monday night once Ferguson exited, working as a safety blanket for Cooper Rush. We could see a similar role this week, regardless he is mispriced due to that game taking place after salaries released and he’s viable in all formats. 

All the spend-up options are playable in GPPs as one-offs or in stacks. Bowers is on his way to breaking the rookie reception record, and is my preferred bring back on a Bo Nix stack or in a correlation with Courtland Sutton. 

McBride won’t be owned whatsoever, but as noted above I like the idea of double-stacking Kyler Murray in GPPs.

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)