Week 14 NFL DFS: Strategy & Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

Welcome into our Week 14 NFL DFS Strategy and Picks article for DraftKings and FanDuel. In this article, I will highlight my favorite plays, values and stacks for the Week 14 NFL DFS slate. If you’re interested in signing up for my access to my Premium DFS lineups and betting cards you can do so by clicking here. By signing up, you will also be granted access to our premium DFS and betting forums. Note that your membership includes ALL sports! Now, let’s get to the plays…

Quarterback 

Top Projected Owned: Will Levis, Kyler Murray, Sam Darnold

My Conviction Plays: Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams, Aidan O’Connell, Baker Mayfield

This is an interesting week for DFS, with some teams motivated and some teams completely out of the playoff race it seems as if we are getting tanking level moves from teams earlier than in the past. We are seeing most of the ownership concentrate on the cheap QBs – Levis and O’Connell – along with Sam Darnold in Week 14. I have some firm takes this week, and a few stacks that stick out above the field for me. 

Of the chalkier stacks/QBs, the one I like the most is Sam Darnold. This is obviously a huge narrative with Kirk Cousins returning to Minnesota, but on paper the match-up for Darnold reigns supreme. He’s been much better at home vs on the road this season, and the Falcons pass defense has fallen off mightly over the last few weeks. 

I love pivoting to Caleb Williams over O’Connell/Levis. He’s proven to be a dynamic rusher which raises his floor while the ceiling has been there as well since they made the OC change. They’ve skewed more pass-heavy with Thomas Brown calling plays as well, and the 49ers defense has been completely inept with Nick Bosa off the field. You can single or double stack him with multiple options on the other side for a run back. 

I also love Kyler this week at home in a huge, must win game in regards to the NFC West race. We know that has rushing upside, but recently when he does hits it’s been in big ways so I think doubling him up with Harrison and McBride will be in my three max extry mix this weekend. 

Running Back 

Top Projected Owned: Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Zach Charbonnet, Isaac Guerendo, Braelon Allen

My Conviction Plays: Saquon Barkley, Zach Charbonnet, Isaac Guerendo, Alvin Kamara, Bucky Irving, Najee Harris

This is one of the strongest RB weeks of the season, and I think every single play I have listed in the top owned section is a great play. Both Barkley and Kamara are elite spend ups in good match-ups, while we also have several strong value plays due to injury situations. 

If choosing one spend-up, it would have to be Barkley. 

I would rank the cheap plays – Charbonnet, Guerendo, Allen in that order. Charbonnet is pretty much a lock for me given that we’ve seen him have a monster role without Walker already this season. Guerendo looks really good on paper as a prospect – good size/speed – and can mix in as a pass catcher. Allen is a good prospect, but clearly in the worst offensive situation which is why he comes in third. All three are strong values, however, and can be used in all formats. 

Bucky Irving continues to ascend if he’s ruled in I think he is a fantastic pivot in the mid-tier. Given the quality of the plays I just mentioned I do think most people will go up to the top or down to the value tier leaving the mid-tier RB roster builds to be less common. He has as much upside as anyone given the role we have seen from him post-bye. 

I also like Najee Harris in the mid-tier – who has had some big games recently. Pittsburgh are big home favorites here against the Browns and the potential for short fields are always in play with Winston opposing you. It’s also been much easier to run on Cleveland since star LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah went down and I’m expecting a heavy workload for Harris on Sunday in a winning game script. 

Wide Receiver

Top Projected Owned: Jakobi Meyers, Jauan Jennings, Drake London, Jerry Jeudy, Calvin Ridley, Mike Evans

My Conviction Plays: Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, Calvin Ridley, Drake London, Khalil Shakir, Brian Thomas Jr, CHI WRs, Marv Harrison Jr

Once again this week, ownership is settling pretty heavily on the mid-tier at WR while people look to spend-up for Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara in their single entry or cash game rosters. This will create unique opportunities when it comes to roster construction if you choose different build paths on Sunday. 

Typically, I focus on stacks in this section and we can start off with Justin Jefferson to pair with Sam Darnold. This just screams like a big Jefferson game to me, especially because it feels like forever since we’ve had that vintage 100-2 Jefferson game. He hasn’t topped 100 yards in over a month. Historically he has fared better at home vs on the road and I want to make a point to get up to him with or without Darnold on Sunday. Finding a dirt cheap stack in an attempt to fit one of the high dollar RBs along with Jefferson is a build I’m playing with for small-field. 

I will consider single or double-stacking Caleb Williams with Keenan Allen and DJ Moore being my favorite options. Allen has been absolutely smashing since Thomas Brown took over as OC and I like the usage we’ve seen from him in the red zone. He is my top option if just choosing one. 

Mike Evans is motivated to have a big game here with his 1,000 yard streak on the line. He needs to average close to 100 yards the rest of the way and this is one narrative I’m 100% willing to buy into.

I loved Marv Harrison Jr vs the Seahawks two weeks ago – while he didn’t do much in that game he did have a TD called back. He scored last week as well, which would have made 2 TDs in two games post-bye week. It’s still a great match-up for him and I would use him in a Murray stack. 

For run-backs – I like Jeudy as correlation with Najee Harris and Drake London on the opposite side of my Darnold stuff. 

Tight End

Top Projected Owned: Brock Bowers, Cade Otton, David Njoku, Trey McBride

My Conviction Plays: Trey McBride, TJ Hockenson, Juwan Johnson, Brock Bowers

With Taysom Hill now out for the season, we fall back into our early season positional breakdown at TE. You spend up for one of the elite fantasy tight ends, or you save as much money as possible and hope for 7-10 points from a punt option. 

I like the spend up options this week for GPPs, particularly Trey McBride. McBride has posted 20+ fantasy points in each of the last two games and still has yet to catch a touchdown this season. He has far and away the most catches in football without a TD, and that will eventually change hopefully this weekend. Seattle ranks middle of the pack in TE defense and I’m forecasting McBride to finally hit paydirt on Sunday. I love mini-stacking him with Charbonnet or Smith-Njigba or obviously using him in a Murray stack. 

Hockenson/Bowers can be used in mini-correlations or stacks as well, with Juwan Johnson sticking out for cheap plays. He should step into a larger role for the Saints post-Hill and we saw him see seven targets a week ago. 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)