Welcome into our Week 9 NFL DFS Strategy and Picks article for DraftKings and FanDuel. In this article, I will highlight my favorite plays, values and stacks for the Week 9 NFL DFS slate. If you’re interested in signing up for my access to my Premium DFS lineups and betting cards you can do so by clicking here. By signing up, you will also be granted access to our premium DFS and betting forums. Note that your membership includes ALL sports! Now, let’s get to the plays…
Quarterback
Highest Projected Owned: Geno Smith, Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones, Josh Allen, Jameis Winston
My Conviction Plays: Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, Gardner Minshew, Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, Bryce Young, Derek Carr
Week 9 is set for another huge main slate, with 12 games available on DraftKings and 13 on FanDuel. Once again, cheap QB’s are dominating the projected ownership. Last week, I was very heavy on the cheapies in Jameis Winston and Mason Rudolph – this week there’s a lot more up for debate for me personally. Geno Smith is currently popping as the highest-owned option, but I am expecting that to drop a little now that we know DK Metcalf will not play in this game. Regardless, I’m completely fine coming in underweight to Smith who has struggled outdoors since joining the Seahawks and will be down Metcalf as I noted. Los Angeles is a good match-up on paper, but I’m not looking to play into chalk here. Daniel Jones also has a good on-paper match-up, but isn’t cheap enough for me to love him as a play. There’s significant in-game benching risk and I wouldn’t look at him outside of GPP formats.
If I’m going to take on some risk, I would rather save as much salary as possible which has me interested in Gardner Minshew. He is $700 cheaper than Jones on DraftKings and has an equally as strong match-up against the Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati has allowed the fourth-most DK PPG to opposing QBs this year – and the Raiders team total is actually trending towards 20 points as we head to the weekend. There is definite benching risk for Minshew as well, but I’m more inclined to eat that risk when I’m saving that $700 in salary.
I also think Bryce Young is a viable cheap option, after posting a 15.6 DK point performance in his start last week. New Orleans has operated as a pass-funnel defense this season facing the fourth-most pass attempts but ranking middle of the road in rush attempts faced. They will also be down multiple starting players in the secondary this week, including Marshon Lattimore. Similarly you can look at Derek Carr in this same game in his return to the lineup. Carolina has essentially been the worst defense in football over the last few weeks, and with Alvin Kamara expected to dominate own% at RB, this could be a worthy pivot in larger-field contests.
I have no issues going back to Jameis Winston anytime he starts, but one of my favorite tournament plays on the slate is actually his opponent, Justin Herbert. Herbert has been absolutely cooking as of late and he’s catching the Cleveland Browns defense at the right time. Denzel Ward is highly questionable for this game, and their star LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah will miss this game as well. He’s been throwing the ball much more over the last month – topping 30+ PA in his last three games and I love him as a pivot in Week 9.
Both Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins are strong plays in the mid-tier – but it appears that most people are expecting a run-heavy approach from the Falcons and a pass-heavy approach from the Cowboys. This game features a slate-high total of 552 points – yet Dak/Lamb are both projected at the top of their position in ownership while Cousins and some of his secondary pass catchers potentially fall to the wayside. You don’t need me to tell you that stacks from a 52 total are in play, but I have no issues flipping the cards to a Falcons stack this week. Cousins looks like one of the best plays on the board to me in both small or large-field GPP formats.
Of the higher-priced options this week, I’m most interested in Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels.
Running Back
Highest Projected Owned: Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson, Kyren Williams, Chase Brown, Chuba Hubbard, James Conner
My Conviction Plays: Alvin Kamara, Chase Brown, De’Von Achane, Kenneth Walker, Tyrone Tracy
I don’t see any huge surprises in terms of the current projected RB ownership, but will note that some things could shake up if Tony Pollard or one of the other questionable-tagged backs get ruled out.
All of the expensive guys projecting for high-ownership are in great match-ups. Kamara draws the Panthers who have been completely inept defensively over the last month. Bijan Robinson has been posting some monster scores as of late, that could be even bigger if he didn’t have multiple TD’s called back. He draws the Cowboys who are still banged up defensively, and have been a complete disaster against both the run and pass. Kyren Williams match-up is fine and he’s scored a touchdown in every game this season. For cash games I would be starting with Kamara, and everything else will come down to my roster construction / what stacks I’m implementing. I’m not going into the week dead-set on any RB’s like I usually am — it will very much be a “who fits into this build” week.
Two guys I really like for GPPs are Kenneth Walker and Tyrone Tracy.
Walker has been amazing when healthy this season, and we catch him in a close spread at home this week. It appears that users and projection systems are pushing Seattle passing stacks this week. I’m not crazy interested there at the ownership, so I’ll gladly make the pivot to be overweight Walker in tournaments and hope he scores the touchdowns.
As for Tracy, the runway is cleared for takeoff. He cleared concussion protocol and will play this week, and it’s clear he’s ready to take on the lead back role for this offense. He’s looked extremely explosive in some tough match-ups this season, and now matches up with a very weak run-defense in the Commanders. There’s a good chance this is the cheapest we see him again this season due to how soft his schedule becomes and I want to be overweight. This provides direct leverage off another chalky QB play in Daniel Jones as well.
Wide Receiver
Highest Projected Owned: CeeDee Lamb, Cedric Tillman, Chris Olave, Jakobi Meyers, Drake London, Tyreek Hill, Ladd McConkey, Ray-Ray McCloud
My Conviction Plays: CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, Chris Olave, Ja’Marr Chase, Jakobi Meyers, Ladd McConkey, Darnell Mooney, Jalen Coker, Cooper Kupp (if Puka Nacua out), Parker Washington
Given the value options that are popping at both QB and RB – a lot of the mid to high-tier WR’s are picking up the large ownership tags. It’s no surprise to see CeeDee Lamb and Drake London at the top of the list given the game environment. Chris Olave is also catching a big number with Derek Carr back at QB and Rashid Shaheed out long-term. Lamb/London are more likely to find my non game stack lineups than Olave though, due to my interest in one of Olave’s teammates (see below).
Ja’Marr Chase is catching a fair ownership projection, but may grade out as my number one overall play when it’s all said and done. It’s very easy to get up to him on a Minshew team – or you can one-off him with one of the other cheap stacks. He saw a cool 30%% target-share with Tee Higgins down last week and leads the NFL in touchdown catches through eight weeks. Las Vegas is still struggling without Maxx Crosby and they rank bottom-eight in pressure%. Burrow might actually have time to throw on Sunday and I don’t think Vegas has anyone that can keep Chase from having his way.
Another play I love in the mid-tier is Ladd McConkey. We hit a huge score on the afternoon slate last week thanks to Ladd, and anyone that’s followed me knows I’ve been sky-high on him since his time at Georgia. I love his ability to get separation and the 4.3 speed is just a cherry on top – which was on full display last weekend. Ladd has absolutely cooked man coverage this season – no surprise – while the Browns operate one of the few man-heavy schemes left in the NFL.
Cedric Tillman is rightfully popping as a high-owned play this week after a 30+ point fantasy game a week ago. He’s viable in all formats again this week.
I’m also looking at Jalen Coker for cheap in all formats. It’s tough to count on Bryce Young at this point in his career, but he and Coker connected for a touchdown last week en route to a near 18 DK point game. As I noted above, New Orleans will be down multiple DBs in this match-up.
Note: If Puka Nacua is ruled out on Sunday morning, Kupp will become one of my top plays on the slate and a priority.
Tight End
Highest Projected Owned: Brock Bowers, Mike Gesicki, David Njoku, AJ Barner
My Conviction Plays: Brock Bowers, Mike Gesicki, Kyle Pitts, Jake Ferguson, Taysom Hill,, Evan Engram
After a Tight End EXPLOSION last week on National Tight End Day, we can pretty much expect 0 from all of these guys in Week 9. I’m kidding, of course, but I also won’t be surprised if that was some completely random part of the simulation we live in that the only weekend any TE did anything happened to be last Sunday.
Mike Gesicki is popping due to the role we’ve seen from him with Tee Higgins out of the lineup. I think he’s the best play on the board for cash games, but I usually fade the cheap chalk TE in tournaments outside of a game stack. Both Brock Bowers and David Njoku look like great options, but that price range is always GPP-only for me at this position.
I don’t really love the Barner play for cheap, when I still expect multiple TEs to play for the Seahawks so I’ll probably play TE this week one of two ways. I will look to fill in my QB or game stack with this position + I’ll go overweight on a volatile player like Taysom Hill. I’ve had some of my biggest weeks ever due to Hill scoring multiple touchdowns – and these weeks where Saints players are going to be very high-owned are the best to play him. I’m also interested in backing Hill to find the end zone at +150 odds.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
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